Thursday, October 27, 2005

Warning: Politics Below

Two suggestions for Taiwan:

1. Announce a policy for an immediate declaration of indepedence upon any warlike act from China. (Since game theory is hot now, I'd liken this to a game of Chicken where Taiwan showily handcuffs herself to the steering wheel.)

2. Have a referendum upon the question, "Any unification plan must pass a referendum of Taiwan's voters with X% approval rate with Y% of total registered voters voting."

The beauty of this is Taiwan can claim to be setting up for a unification scenario (not independence), but at the same time constraining China if it passes that any unification plan has to be damn acceptable to the people of Taiwan and not some bargain made with James Soong in a smoke-filled Shanghai KTV.

The DPP should have done this last time and damn their "base" who would freak out. It totally wrong foots the KMT - could they oppose a law setting up a system to approve unification? (I guess if the bar was set too high on percentages.) Could the USA be upset? China could whine, but they do anyways.

For all you TI'ers out there, remember that East Timor's referendum was worded as such:

"Do you accept the proposed special autonomy for East Timor within the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia?" or "Do you reject the proposed special autonomy for East Timor, leading to East Timor's separation from Indonesia?"

Notice the YES was for unification (well, continuing being part of Indonesia) so it would be a pretty useful tool for Taiwan to have this law on the books as being mandatory. Even if Taiwan were to lose a war with China, the international community might just be able to pressure China at some later point to honor the law .

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