Looking Back on the Oracle of Montana
A year ago I wrote of a pending regional war in Africa. Clearly Darfur has spilled over into Chad, no big surprise. The real surprise is how quickly it seems to have affected the Central African Republic.
It looks like the Americans have given up on supporting the Khartoum government, at least superficially (as I predicted wouldn't happen). I'm not sure if that's good or bad for regional stability, but I find it intresting to note Ethiopian involvement in Somalia and the ramifications on Eritrean 'interests.' Long story short, the newfound friendship between Eritrea and the Sudan can mean nothing but trouble for Ethiopia, especially with an Islamicist regime installing itself in neighboring Somalia despite an Ethiopian military presence within Somalia's borders. This region is going to blow, and blow soon. What's left afterwards will be trouble for Europe, North America, and possibly East Asia.
The wild card will be Chinese pragmatism in regards to foreign policy. The Chinese have invested heavily within the Sudan in hopes of gaining access to the southern oil fields; regime change as the Americans want will not be acceptable. However, if the situation worsens (or when the situation worsens), nobody knows how strongly China is willing push to protect her own interests.
As a sidenote, I discount the Middle East getting too heavily involved, other than through jihadists. The governments will watch from the side (with the occasional inflamatory news report) and let Khartoum and Mogadishu sort things out.
Could this be the opportunity for Khadafi to insert himself into the African leadership role he has coveted? It's a scary world when we must turn our eyes to Khadafi for peace and hope.
P.S. Canadians be warned: Your beloved peacekeepers will be in the region to clean up the mess in ten years. Of course, it looks as if peacekeepers may already be heading there to join the African Union troops. Pragmatism by Khartoum?
2 comments:
How about this situation? Sata, who lost the election in Zambia but picked up parlimentary support, fancies himself a fan a imitator of Mugabe in Zimbabwe ( I've seen several boards with guys calling for Africa for Africans), while the locals themselves are getting more and more fed up with the Chinese.
Yes! My first darfur related comment. you could have called me a jackass and i would have been stoked.
as far as the zambian situation, i plead ignorance as to the regional developments. my guess is nobody in europe, asia or n.a. will give a shit about any of it unless it trickles into kenya or tanzania. then they'll be messing with future hunting/chinese medicine gathering grounds!
(kenya highly possible as several somalis have already set up shop there trying to escape the anarchy in their country).
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