Monday, March 17, 2008

Beijing Olympics

Once they are finished, the Chinese can invade Taiwan safely. Now, I am sure the pan-blue election results will make that a non-starter, but let's go back in a time-warp to see what was said about an invasion of Taiwan in 2006.

Most of the initial fighting would be in the Zhong Zheng District, Taipei, which contains the Presidential Building, the Ministry of National Defense, and the Legislative Yuan.
Thank God I live in Taichung!
Infiltrators might receive some assistance from sympathetic elements within Taiwan's military and police, who are believed to be at least 75 percent pro-Kuomintang (KMT), and hence, pro-unification. Many could use taxis to move about the city unnoticed. Mainland Chinese prostitutes, already in abundance in Taiwan, could be recruited by Chinese intelligence to serve as femme fatales, supplying critical intelligence on the locations of key government and military leaders at odd hours of the night; death is the ultimate aphrodisiac.
No, I did not make that quote up. Lay back and think of China.
Except for special forces and the marines, it is unlikely that the rest of Taiwan's infantry brigades scattered across the island would do much. As the saying goes, "It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog that matters." Taiwan's military is rife with lethargic and ineffectual troops just begging for their 20-month tour of duty to end so they can go back to their girlfriends and jobs.
Lethargic and ineffectual. That's what she said! (Joke courtesy of Malv.)
Taiwan's navy would have little to do in this war scenario, except sink like rocks.
Sink like R-O-C's.
Once Taipei was captured, a new government chosen by Beijing would be sworn into office. There would be plenty of Taiwanese politicians to choose from. It is well known there are many pro-China legislators who have investments in China and more than a few who have had private meetings with Beijing officials. The inauguration would be conducted in the spotlight of the international media, giving it some psychological legitimacy in the eyes of the international community. There would be too many pro-China people in the US State Department - privately relieved the Taiwan issue was finally settled - to say anything in Taiwan's defense.
Panda-huggers at State - what can't they do? Its a funny story in some ways, where the Chinese execute their plan flawlessly while the Taiwanese bumble along and are pro-China anyways. My experience in China is that ordering a meal there is a trial of great difficulty, let along organizing a combined armed invasion of the island of Taiwan, but they have been improving their service in the restaurants, and the PLA cannot be far behind.

2 comments:

Rye said...

Fascinating stuff. What do you think the chances of a prolonged guerrilla war by nationalist Taiwanese elements might be, particularly in the south?

Red A said...

Low. Not enough access to military hardware like in Iraq or Afghanistan.